If you are interested in looking ahead to identify and prepare for the big changes likely to affect our society, and want credible information on them, then this site has been built
specially for you. 

All by-lined papers on this site are printed for interest and as a basis for discussion.  They do not necessarily reflect the official view of FTA. 

 

*    Inside the Black Box: Insights and Questions . An interesting look at New Zealand's future by the 'FutureMakers' project, Institute of Policy Studies, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington, Working Paper 09/03
  

*    Happy Peasants and Miserable Millionaires: Happiness Research, Economics, and Public Policy.  For an interesting article on this subject see:

http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0130_happiness_graham.aspx 

 

*     Geo-engineering proposals for mitigating climate change continue to proliferate without being tested. It is time to select and assess the most promising ideas according to efficacy, cost, all aspects of risk and, importantly, their rate of mitigation. Propelling aerosols into the upper atmosphere or pumping carbon dioxide into the deep ocean are just two schemes that have been proposed to repair the Earth’s climate through geo-engineering.  See the latest on this interesting subject by Philip Boyd, NIWA.

 *   There's always fallout from a crisis, and the ongoing world  financial crisis is no different.  Economics and economists have dominated national and international policy making since the early 1980's - some would say longer.  But will this continue?  Read here what the  "Economist' magazine has to say; you might be surprised.

*   "Education that can be peer produced, delivered as bits, and curated by a community." If you're more interested in 'tomorrow's learning' than 'Tomorrow's Schools", check this out : it's fascinating - and don't forget to read the 'comments'.

*   Will oil depletion save us from global warming?  A technical but readable essay

*    "The energy cost to run a home computer is modest enough that it’s easy to forget, for example, that the two big server farms that keep Yahoo’s family of web services online use more electricity between them than all the televisions on Earth put together. Multiply that out by the tens of thousands of server farms that keep today’s online economy going, and the hundreds of o

ther energy-intensive activities that go into the internet, and it may start to become clear how much energy goes into putting these words onto the screen where you’re reading them".  

 

If you find this interesting, read the full article on the future of the internet, here

 

*  Neil Plimmer, a former New Zealand diplomat who served in Western Samoa and who has recently retired as Chairman of the Pacific Cooperation Foundation, is our latest essayist.  His piece on taking the long view towards Pacific nations is here

      *  At our last (April) Wellington forum, Terence O'Brien,  Senior Fellow, CSS:NZ, gave his view of "A Future Shape for International Relations".  You can view the full text presentation here.

 

       *  If you sometimes wonder whether family life has 'done a runner', and wonder why, read this.  It's a little longer than most articles, so you might like to get a cup of tea - or coffee, but it's worth spending the time.

 

        * Gordon Dryden recently made a presentation to at a FTA Wellington forum on a future for New Zealand.  See the 'Essays' menu for the text.

 

        * If you're interested in understanding the current US energy policy as announced by Secretary Chu, read this . The technical bits can be glossed over without missing the main thrust of the argument.

       *     An interesting article in the 'Guardian' on global warming.  Not only does it seem the earth is warming up; so also the associated debate.

 

       *     The World of tomorrow  by Brian Kaller. Kaller is an American-born journalist now living in County Kildare, Ireland. He has written for the American Conservative, Permaculture and several other publications, and is one of the heads of FADA, a group working to prepare Irish communities for the future. It’s a long piece, but if nothing else, read the last two paragraphs. http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48300

      *    For some positive reading for New Zealanders in this time of near-universal economic gloom, see an essay on the benefits of living on an island (or in our case, islands). The piece provides an inspirational base for can-do thinking.

      *    If you're interested in New Zealand's learning/education systems, a recent book, "Unlimited" by Gordon Dryden and Jeannette Vos, outlines splendidly the possibilities and opportunities for improving on how we are going about teaching our younger generation. Read the full review.

   

                *    It's very easy to get carried away with pessimism
               when discussing today's two great challenges,
              global warming and energy.  However, as this article
              on global warming appears in the 'Guardian' it's fairly
              safe to say it represents realism rather than pessimism.

      *   The International Energy Agency, based in Paris,
    has long been regarded by government policy
    makers as the oracle of our energy future.  The IEA
    2008 report Summary here, is a curious mixture of
    optimism and pessimism.  However, for the first time
    they are signaling real problems, not too far down the
    road. It's a remarkable turn-around from their
    previous view which in itself makes the report well
    worth a look at.

        
      *  The latest publication on climate change and the
    energy challenge as they relate to New Zealand. 
      Read  our critique

      *  Are we taking enough advantage of new
    developments in neuro-science and information
    technology in our education/learning systems?
    Our July forum covered the topic. See our background
    paper on the issue.

      *  Are we happy?  How do we measure, as a
    country, how happy we are?  There’s a concept
    called ‘genuine progress indicators’ that has been
    doing the rounds for a while, but is now coming
    more into the public consciousness.  FTA believes
    the time has arrived for getting in behind those who
    are working on this concept in New Zealand. Our
    June Wellington forum was on  GPI’s in New Zealand,
    and was held in tandem with an ‘invitation only’
    workshop moderated by Marilyn Waring who is an
    internationally recognized authority on the subject.
    For really good background on the concept,
    see  this:  it’s worth reading, and contains other useful
    links to how the concept is working in Canada.
 

               *  State of New Zealand's Future:2008 Report.  This
            presentation was given in Wellington by FTA Chairperson
            Mike Gould on 6 May. The power-point slides can be
            seen here.         
 

    *   Shift happens. If you are looking for some statistics to capture attention the next time you're with friends,  check out  http://youtube.com/watch?v=FqfunyCeU5g

You'll need your computer's audio system on.  This is a good example of  future futuring in operation now, for those who have the technology.

    *   Take a bow, the State Services Commission for displaying openly on their website, a series of working
papers detailing thoughts on important policy issues
in New Zealand
see http://www.ssc.govt.nz/display/document.asp?navid=117
 
This must be one of the boldest moves since the
introduction of the Public Information Act.  It is very
heartening to see such openness, as well as providing
useful material for those interested in important policy
issues facing Aotearoa New Zealand

    *  If you're unsure about what really is happening with
    the world's oil supply, read Phil Hart's latest .  It's based
    on official International Energy Agency figures, which
    can usually be relied on to be quite optimistic.  The
    graphics make for easy understanding.

 

                       *   The Community Strategic Planning/Visioning Process.

    Produced by Futures Thinking Aotearoa

   This document has been produced by Futures
   Thinking Aotearoa (the NZ Futures Trust) to help
    communities identify important issues when preparing
    their plans for the future.  Government legislation now
    requires local governments to prepare long-term
    strategies to assist them identify issues that should
    be taken into account when annual plans and budgets
    are being prepared.  It is imperative this process be
    an amalgam of views put forward by the various
    communities that make up each local government
    area,after taking into account available money for
    carrying out the plans.

    Other organisations, and even individuals, might find
    the process useful when building plans for the future.
    While it is not possible to forecast our futures, it is
    possible, now, to identify the major changes going on
    in the world that will likely impact on the way we will
    live. By taking these into account, there is a better
    chance of not being blind-sided by the changes that
    might otherwise cause significant disruption to our
    lives.  Read the document

    *   Recreation and sport used to be what you did for
    preference in your spare time.  It turns out that in
    today's world there's more to it than that. 
    Read what Gareth Moore-Jones has to say on the issue.

•  *   If you believe coal is to replace oil as the preferred energy source when the oil supply begins to deplete, this article is thought-provoking.  There's also a piece on a future short-term financial scenario that is gloomy but asks some pertinent questions.

• *   A Wellington Regional Strategy was published by the Wellington Regional Council in 2007.  A number of Wellington-based FTA members thought the strategy could do with a wider perspective. They met on a number of occasions and produced a document that  better fitted their views on future issues needing to be addressed if people in the Wellington regional people were to continue to enjoy life.  It's likely most of the issues are similar wherever you live.  Click here to see what you think.
  

   *   In May 2007 Charles Waldegrave gave a power point presentation (1MB) on social issues facing the future of New Zealand.  It's worth looking at if you want to see what's happening in the social structure of our society

  *    Philip McCabe, an FTA Board Member, keeps an eagle eye on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology 'Technology Review'. These are the latest URL's that he's identified as worth looking at, relating to energy and biofuels.

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/19981/

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/19924/

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/19925/

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/19926/