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John Robinson
August 2006
All discussion of long-term trends is based on assumptions within a background picture. This needs to be made clear and should include a definition of major trends, interactions/connections and associated time scales. This will indicate which forces might be dominant and when changes can be expected, and where action and further investigation are called for. The following set indicates that significant long-term global developments will largely define the New Zealand future, and suggest that some long-term problems are with us now. Remember that we all live on the one planet.
1. The human population has grown considerably for many millennia, with a very rapid increase over the past century. It may increase by a further 50% (from 6 to 9 billion) before a possible levelling off around 2050. The world is now experiencing a rapid rate of species extinction as human colonisation threatens much of life on earth. Most major religions and economic philosophies are ill suited to the problem of reduction in human numbers and activities, being growth oriented. The forecast for must be for continuation of existing trends. Within this pattern New Zealand is becoming more crowded with a highly uncertain economy that might not provide for the population (there is less activity in farming, there have been huge cuts in manufacturing, there will be less tourism).
2. The modelling of “The limits to growth” followed a number of global studies and forecast the possibility that the world would not be able to produce sufficient food for the increasing population, raising the possibility of widespread starvation around 2030-2040. Further more complex global models repeated this warning without making any firm predictions. Since that time production increases have reduced and there are many reports of limited water resources. Should this global food shortage occur, it would be accompanied by widespread disturbances.
3. Global warming is now accepted to be occurring. This will impact particularly on the islands of the Pacific. Perhaps wealthy Asians emigrating from their damaged environments to the Pacific will find their new homes under threat, while Pacific Islanders will continue to come to New Zealand.
4. The global economy has since 1970 been defined by overproductive capacity and vast movements of capital, excess to requirements and needing to find a home. The international economy has succeeded to the extent that there has been no global crash, although there have been a number of regional and industry-specific crashes. Given this overheated economic situation, there is considerable uncertainty for the coming decades. I would not forecast a crash, but who knows? Note that while Egyptians once built pyramids, and early medieval Europe built cathedrals, the modern USA is spending excess on armaments, war and prisons.
5. While there have long been suggestions that a multipolar world may form, the power of the western oligarchy led by the USA is considerable. The current version of colonialism is particularly brash and warlike. This is fueling a major clash of values, extreme gaps between rich and poor (global and national, with since 1984 a particular impact on New Zealand), and the foreseen increase in terrorism (where one person’s nationalist defender is another person’s terrorist). That inequality and disturbance can be expected to continue for the coming decade or so. The dominant forces and their power (driven by a crude selfish ethic) have defined the failure of the world (and New Zealand) to adequately face the evident problems (such as concerning the environment) and will continue to do so.
6. The oil crises of the 1970s had been forecast. The recent oil price rises had been forecast. In each case the forecasts were denied. The consequences will be the same now as before, not only a higher price for oil but a huge flow of funds from users to producers, who then recycle the excess capital through the global economy leading to distortions, inflation and loss of ownership and control in countries like New Zealand. The oil prices rises thus exacerbate an existing situation. The relative ‘success’ of the heavily indebted New Zealand economy is due to huge trade imbalances and inward flows of foreign currency. New Zealand is a bubble economy with no certainty of what might follow next. This is the major immediate problem facing the country.
7. As well as inequalities throughout much of the world, New Zealand has changed from an egalitarian to a very unequal society. The destruction of many industries and the period of very high unemployment have resulted in the formation of a significant underclass (largely but not completely Maori). That same period has seen an associated change in family structures which may be resulting in inadequate upbringing of many children. These questions are largely swept under the rug and not properly explored or dealt with. The situation will continue and may worsen in an increasingly unequal world characterised by a struggle for resources where extreme wealth will coexist with poverty (nothing new here, but a move away from a brief period of relative equality).
8. All these questions will not be adequately faced. The relative freedom of the period 1945-1984 has been replaced by a central control of universities and science (physical and social), and extraordinary power of social control through modern media.
The summary is of a worrying period, with global and national factors interacting. For example, terrorism will reduce tourism; excess capital will continue to buy up New Zealand, push up house prices and sustain a bubble (or alternately, step aside and let the economy collapse); many families in the underclass will struggle to give a good upbringing to children who will join gangs and take part in anti-social behaviour (with their situation uncertain due to the global economic trends). The main question to be faced is the bubble economy and the loss of sovereignty.
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