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Big Picture Basic Assumptions |
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Yvonne Curtis
September, 2006
Planet Earth
· The planet earth is essentially a closed system from the perspective of “life” on the planet except for the exchange of energy in the form of electromagnetic radiation.
· The total matter available is approximately constant with some small additions from space with meteor strikes etc.
· There is a small chance that there could be a major cosmic event that could radically change the energy/mass situation on earth.
· The present environment on earth is a result of a long complex interaction of the mass elements present, their distribution and characteristics and the energy available for the reactions.
· The physical characteristics provide a dynamic and changeable environment (eg climate) for “life” on the planet.
Humanity By the year 2006 using one of the “human” time scales the further assumptions that are relevant from a human perspective are: (These are all measured using the human view-point and knowledge from within the system.)
· There has been a period of very rapid growth of the human population for the last 200 years.
· Humankind has settled, visited or affected nearly the whole planet – the largest and most complex organism to have such a wide distribution on the planet.
· It is a period of high extinction rates for the very diverse life-forms that presently exist on the planet.
· The climate is showing signs of substantial rapid change that is unusual in recorded human history.
· Evidence has been growing that the high extinction rates of other life-forms and the unusually rapid climate change are linked to human activity.
· Humankind has been building-up a knowledge base enabling it to use the natural resources available to change the environment to suit its needs (and whims) more effectively than any other known life-form.
Basic Human Characteristics · Humans are a mobile complex organism capable of communicating with each other, of complex thought processes and with the knowledge of our own mortality.
· As for all life-forms, humankind has the basic needs of adequate food, water and shelter to stay “alive”.
· Humans socialise in family groups that may enlarge into or cooperate in wider groupings to meet needs of the day-to-day living.
· There is a “spiritual” aspect to being human that has an important influence on human activity that is not determined by logic as presently understood. Human beings can act irrationally and for example the attributes of “happiness” are highly variable depending on the person, time and place.
The Future On the basic assumption that it is in humanity’s long-term interest to continue to be able to live on earth it makes sense to explore ways of understanding more about possible futures. It is also expedient to consider some basic principles to guide our decision-making for the future.
For humankind · To aim to achieve a fulfilling life for as many humans as possible with minimum negative impact on the welfare of other living organisms and
· that there is an opportunity for our descendents for many generations to also achieve fulfilling lives.
For human interaction with the physical environment · To recognise the environmental elements that are at present beyond our control and try to find ways to mitigated any adverse effects
· To recognise the environmental conditions that are essential for human-life
· To change what needs to be changed with caution and with some understanding of possible long-term consequences.
The health of the planet and humanity are intimately linked. The ability of humankind to advance our understanding of the universe and the basis of life, coupled with the ability to develop appropriate tools to enhance our control of our environment makes it essential to continually re-examine our understanding of what is possible and desirable for continued “life” as we know it.
For this reason Futures Thinking Aotearoa is working on a project “Towards 2030” that will explore changes in likely key indicators that will affect the future health of the planet and humanity
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