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Mike Gould
September 2006
One of the fundamental defining characteristics of humankind is our ability to acquire, store, disseminate and use increasing amounts of knowledge. While other species rely on memories of senior members of their group for retaining knowledge, (or possibly instinct, something we don’t yet fully understand) humans have, over the last few thousand years, developed increasingly sophisticated knowledge storage and dissemination systems. This has allowed us to increase our knowledge at an exponential rate. Arguably this has been and is, the biggest single driver for change in our ever-evolving society.
When taken together with our other inbuilt genetic characteristics, the increasing size and sophistication of our knowledge systems, creates opportunities and threats that are correspondingly growing in size and complexity. The big challenge for humankind is whether we can continue to reap a net benefit from this state of affairs.
Language The evolution of language was the first big systematic change in knowledge dissemination. It allowed us to share our experiences and thereby increase our collective knowledge base. The evolution of writing further expanded this opportunity. Next came the printing press, telephones and telegraph and today, computers and the internet. Increasingly, we have used knowledge to satisfy firstly our human needs, and now also, our human wants. We first gathered herbage and lived in caves. We then developed tools and weapons and made huts. Larger social groupings began to form, along with higher standards of living; - houses, better diets, colourful clothing, wheeled transport. Today, we’re in space. All because we learned how to do it.
Genetics It is unfortunate that while our knowledge systems have grown, our humanness has not kept pace. Much of our humanity is determined by our genetic make-up. This has evolved over millions of years, largely in a dangerous environment so that much of our humanness today is geared toward survival in conditions that now no longer predominate, at least in civilised/sophisticated/complex societies. The so-called ‘seven deadly sins’ that characterise much of our underlying makeup, no longer fit in an environment where co-operation is better suited than competition, where brains are more important than brawn, and ‘getting on’ may even be a prerequisite for continued survival. Genetic mutation is not keeping up with our style of life, and socialisation including the evolution of workable societal government, also is proving to be an extraordinary slow process for changing our collective ways.
The Future Looking ahead, (futures thinking) is one way of helping us survive and prosper. Because our world is changing at an ever-increasing rate, we can no longer continue to do the things we were taught as children, and survive, let alone prosper. We are being forced to change our ways whether we like it or not. As individuals, most of us are forced to change our jobs a number of times throughout our lives, as new technologies develop from our expanding knowledge base. To say nothing of what we think about in approaching our everyday lives. Societal groups are forced to change their ways as ‘civilisation’ marches on and new knowledge and resultant technologies demonstrate the folly of much of what we previously held to be true.
Nations change too. As new technologies develop from our expanding knowledge base, power, wealth and influence, waxes and wanes. All roads once led to Rome. Britain created an empire on the back of the industrial revolution. America flourished on the pumping of oil wells and technological development. What international political changes will happen next?
Global change On a global scale, similar events are occurring. The development of new technologies has enabled us to expand our numbers and consume to the point where the planet itself is under stress from emissions, waste disposal and currently–used resource depletion. Our competitive nature has resulted in unequal sharing of the knowledge base and its benefits, to the point where the gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’ is so great that societies, even nations, have collapsed into despair. Even in the ‘have’ countries the pace of change is proving to many to be too great; an increasing number us are becoming ill as we struggle to keep up.
Futures thinking Futures thinking gives us a useful tool to meet the ‘change’ challenge. Unless there is a major catastrophe of some sort we can pretty well guarantee that change will continue to increase at an expanding rate. If we can identify and recognise what choices we have, we will be better placed to discard the negatives of change and adopt the things that will be of benefit to us; as individuals, societies, nations and the planet itself.
But we must remember always, that technology is only one part of the equation. The other half is our humanness – what makes us what we are. Here we must adapt as well, or clearly we will face increasing problems. Since we can’t naturally change the rate of genetic mutation, we must learn to better socialise our humanness so that we can continue to flourish. We cannot continue to act as we have been genetically programmed to do, instinctively, without sufficient thought for the consequences. If we don’t learn that message, our own cleverness will destroy much of what we have created. Atomic fission can create bombs or power stations; transport can give us wonderful new experiences and/or global warming. The internet can bring porn and/or insight. Major population, wealth and knowledge imbalances will bring despair to some and terrorism to others.
Looking ahead, futures thinking, will surely help us choose more wisely.
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